RBA Rate Indicator - November 2017

What is the RBA Rate Indicator?

The RBA Rate Indicator shows market expectations of a change in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) set by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The indicator calculates a percentage probability of an RBA interest rate change based on the market determined prices in the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures.

The table below illustrates how market expectations of an interest rate change at the next RBA Board meeting have changed in the last few days. The RBA Rate Indicator is updated at the end of each business day so you can see any change in expectations after each trading day.

The RBA rate indicator provides market participants and commentators with a market monitor for official cash rate expectations in Australia

What is the RBA Rate Indicator saying today?

On the 3rd of October 2017 the RBA left the official cash rate unchanged. The current official cash rate as determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is 1.50%.

The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on the 7th of November 2017.

As at 16 October, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures November 2017 contract was trading at 98.505, indicating a 0% expectation of an interest rate increase to 1.75% at the next RBA Board meeting.

The table below highlights how market expectations of an interest rate increase at the next RBA Board meeting has evolved in recent days.

Trading DayNo ChangeIncrease to 1.75%
5 October100%0%
6 October100%0%
9 October100%0%
10 October100%0%
11 October100%0%
12 October100%0%
13 October100%0%
16 October100%0%

  • ASX Rate Indicator calculation
  • Graph on implied expectation of Change to Target Cash Rate for November 2017 Expiry Month
  • Current Cash Rate Futures yield curve and implied expectations of changes to the Official Cash Rate for the next 18 months
  • Disclaimer

    This information is indicative only. It is not investment advice and readers should seek their own professional advice in assessing the effect of the information in their circumstances. ASX Limited and its related corporations accept no responsibility for errors or omissions, including negligence, or for any damage loss or claim arising from reliance on the information. Futures and options trading involves the potential for both profits and losses and only licensed brokers and advisors can advise on this risk.