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Dividends: What to expect in 2016

Photo of David Bassanese By David Bassanese

min read

With interest rates still very low around the world by historic standards, the chase for yield among investors remains intense. The need for decent income returns is all the more pressing considering Australia’s population is getting older and more are entering retirement.

The good news for Australian investors is that the local sharemarket still offers attractive income returns, provided they are prepared to stomach the volatility in share price performance. And despite recent downward pressure on corporate earnings, most companies seem likely to preserve their dividend returns to the maximum extent possible.

Dividends have been the quiet achiever of the Australian equity market, contributing significantly to the total return of the market over time. In the 12 years to the end of 2015 the compound annualised return for the S&P/ASX 200 was 8.8 per cent, while the price index produced 3.2 per cent – implying dividends produced 5.6 per cent per annum – or two-thirds of the market’s total return over the period. 

Dividend returns have also been considerably less volatile. The standard deviation in rolling 12-month price returns for the S&P/ASX 200 Index over the same period above was 17 per cent per annum. The worst 12-month price performance was a 42.7 per cent decline in the year to the end of November 2008; the best performance was a 38.7 per cent gain in the year to the end of February 2010.

By contrast, the standard deviation in rolling 12-month dividend returns (the difference in annual performance of the market’s total return and price indices) over this period was only 0.7 per cent per annum. The worst annual dividend return (before dividend imputation) was 2.7 per cent in the year to the end of 2008; the best performance was 6.2 per cent in the year to the end of December 2009.

Even in the darkest of times, investors can expect at least some dividend return. Dividends keep on keeping on.

Over 2015 the dividend return from the market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200 Index) was 4.7 per cent. The grossed-up dividend return (after accounting for franking credits) was 6.5 per cent, more than three times the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate of 2 per cent.

The chart below shows that relative to interest rates, the market’s current grossed-up dividend yield remains attractive.

Indeed, the only time the yield looked more attractive was when market valuations sank to very cheap levels at the bottom of the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. At the end of December 2015, the gross dividend yield was 6.6 per cent per annum, compared to only around 2.5 per cent for the MSCI World (Developed Market) Equity Index (excluding Australia).

Of course, all this begs the question whether dividend payments are sustainable against the backdrop of weak local economic growth and subdued corporate earnings. Recent market speculation, for example, has suggested that both BHP Billiton and ANZ Bank – for their own unique reasons – may need to cut their dividends, given asset writedowns.

For investors concerned with the overall market, however, it remains the case that many companies place great importance on maintaining dividend payments to the extent possible, even if this means a rise in payout ratios at a time of cyclically depressed earnings.

According to Bloomberg estimates, the average payout ratio (the proportion of earnings paid out as dividends) for companies in the S&P/ASX 200 Index has edged up to 90 per cent in recent years, compared to a longer-run average of around 75 per cent. Unless earnings recover, that suggests the level of dividends may not be sustainable and will need to be cut.

But provided there remains a reasonable prospect of an earnings recovery, many companies seem well placed to maintain dividends at least for the foreseeable future.

Indeed, according to recent research by the Reserve Bank of Australia (Trends in Australian Corporate Financing, RBA Bulletin December 2015), “[listed] companies have generally increased dividends over recent years, after the reduction in dividend payments immediately following the global financial crisis.” The RBA notes that while companies have increased dividends as a share of operating cash flows in recent years, this ratio remains “well within historical norms”.

All up, assuming dividends do not need to be slashed, the market’s prospective income returns should remain attractive for yield-hungry investors this year, especially as interest rates should not rise by much. Although the US Federal Reserve is likely to modestly raise official interest rates this year, overall global inflation remains low, which should contain the overall rise in bond yields.

Closer to home, moreover, the bias for official interest rates remains to the downside, given weakness in mining investment and commodity prices, together with emerging signs that the home-building boom has peaked.

Using ETPs for yield
Investors seeking to take advantage of the market’s attractive dividend yields have a number of options. Most obviously, they can seek out high-yielding company stocks. Or they can invest in one of a number of cost-effective income-focused exchange-traded products (ETPs). Nine ETPs at the end of last year were focused on providing relatively attractive income returns from the domestic market.

Source: ASX Funds Monthly Update. Australian ETF Investment Guide
FUM is Funds Under Management.
Note that most of the income-oriented ETPs obtain their yield enhancement by having a higher weighting of the financial and consumer staples sectors in particular (most of these products avoid investing in listed property trusts). That said, with the recent decline in mining stocks, the weighting to the materials sector has increased for several products over the past year due to the sector’s enhanced yield offering.

Of course, by investing in the equity market, investors also typically need to accept higher volatility in returns compared to relatively more defensive assets, such as cash or bonds. In this regard, investors might consider ETPs that also aim to dampen return volatility to some degree.

By its nature, the strategy of selling call options implicit in the BetaShares Australian Top 20 Equity Yield Maximiser Fund (managed fund. ASX Code: YMAX) aims to cushion returns in weak markets due to the regular receipt of call option premiums. Although this strategy does somewhat limit upside gains when markets are rising strongly.

By comparison, the BetaShares Australian Dividend Harvester Fund (managed fund, ASX Code: HVST) employs an explicit risk-management overlay, through the sales of SPI futures, seeking to manage the fund’s overall volatility and cushion downside risk.

The table below shows that most of the dividend-focused ETPs (with at least one year’s performance) have produced above market yields over the past year.

About the author

David Bassanese is chief economist at BetaShares, a leading ETP issuer.
Follow David on Twitter @DavidBassanese

From ASX

Exchange Traded Products has information on the features, benefits and risks of ASX-listed ETPs.

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