RBA Rate Indicator - January 2020

What is the RBA Rate Indicator?

The RBA Rate Indicator shows market expectations of a change in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) set by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The indicator calculates a percentage probability of an RBA interest rate change based on the market determined prices in the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures.

The table below illustrates how market expectations of an interest rate change at the next RBA Board meeting have changed in the last few days. The RBA Rate Indicator is updated at the end of each business day so you can see any change in expectations after each trading day.

The RBA rate indicator provides market participants and commentators with a market monitor for official cash rate expectations in Australia

What is the RBA Rate Indicator saying today?

On the 3rd of December 2019 the RBA left the official cash rate unchanged. The current official cash rate as determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is 0.75%.

The next RBA Board meeting and Official Cash Rate announcement will be on the 4th of February 2020.

As at 6 December, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures January 2020 contract was trading at 99.255, indicating a 3% expectation of an interest rate decrease to 0.50% at the next RBA Board meeting.

The table below highlights how market expectations of an interest rate decrease at the next RBA Board meeting has evolved in recent days.

Trading DayNo ChangeDecrease to 0.50%
27 November82%18%
28 November82%18%
29 November87%13%
2 December87%13%
3 December97%3%
4 December97%3%
5 December97%3%
6 December97%3%

  • ASX Rate Indicator calculation
  • Graph on implied expectation of Change to Target Cash Rate for January 2020 Expiry Month
  • Current Cash Rate Futures yield curve and implied expectations of changes to the Official Cash Rate for the next 18 months
  • Disclaimer

    This information is indicative only. It is not investment advice and readers should seek their own professional advice in assessing the effect of the information in their circumstances. ASX Limited and its related corporations accept no responsibility for errors or omissions, including negligence, or for any damage loss or claim arising from reliance on the information. Futures and options trading involves the potential for both profits and losses and only licensed brokers and advisors can advise on this risk.