This quarter was characterised by continued geopolitical developments and energy-driven inflation concerns which influenced monetary policy settings. Against this backdrop, participants actively managed interest rate risk as the RBA delivered a further rate increase in May before unanimously holding the cash rate unchanged in June, while maintaining a cautious stance on the inflation and economic outlook into their August decision. As at mid-July, the market is pricing in a 19% chance of another rate hike at the August 2026 meeting.
Key observations from the June 2026 Roll
The June 2026 bond futures roll delivered another strong outcome, with robust trading activity throughout the roll period. Notably, 10 June, the second day of the Bond Futures roll, marked the second-largest trading day in ASX 24 history.
Trading activity continued to be well distributed between outright and roll execution, while order book liquidity remained materially above historical levels. This highlights the sustained benefits of the bond roll delinking.
3 Year Bond Futures:
- Total outright activity up 28% YoY
- Outright trading now accounts for around 50% of roll-period activity
- Average top-of-book liquidity during the roll period exceeded 900 lots, compared with 96 lots during the June 2024 roll prior to delinking
10 Year Bond Futures:
- Total outright activity up 9% YoY
- Outright trading has consistently represented more than 38% of roll-period activity since delinking was introduced in March 2025
- Average top-of-book liquidity during the roll period exceeded 720 lots, compared with 47 lots during the June 2024 roll prior to delinking