Record Rates trading volumes in Q4 2025
Trading volumes in Q4 2025 continued to be strong as a result of macroeconomic volatility - supported by market microstructure changes implemented by ASX, including Bond-Roll De-Linking and the 3 year tick change to 0.5bps. Volumes in Q4 2025 were up 14% vs Q3 and up 23% vs Q4 2024.
While the RBA cash rate remained on hold during the period, market expectations shifted from pricing in further rate cuts to pricing in rate increases throughout 2026. As at the end of January, the market was pricing in a ~70% chance of a rate increase in February.
October and November 2025 were the second and third highest non-roll months for interest rate futures activity on record, with only tariff-related volatility in April 2025 driving volumes to exceed these months. Additionally, December 2025 was the third highest month for interest rate futures activity ever, resulting in record quarterly Rates trading volumes in Q4 2025.